daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.71 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.8 · 2026-09-08
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.39 · 2026-09-08
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7636.36 · 2026-09-09

Decision: held · computed in 18188 ms

Brief cites a figure not in the data: 117 bps.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": false,
    "reason": "Brief cites a figure not in the data: 117 bps.",
    "confidence": 0
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.8,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.39,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-09",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7636.36,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.8,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-04",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.78
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.39,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-04",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.37
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-09",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7636.36,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-08",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7673.52
      }
    ]
  },
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.71%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgages rose 5 bps to 6.71%, tracking a gentle yield curve move higher."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.8%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 4.8%, up 2 bps; the 191 bps mortgage premium reflects lender pricing amid continued credit and duration risk."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.39%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury at 4.39%, matching the 10-year's 2 bps gain; the 10–2 spread of 41 bps remains shallow, constraining refi incentive."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63%, holding 117 bps below the current 30-year mortgage."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,636.36",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,636.36; equity momentum has not shifted rate markets materially in the last session."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The 30-year mortgage-to-10-year spread has expanded to 191 bps, signaling persistent origination margin pressure; a steeper 10–2 curve (41 bps) does not offset the wider 30-year premium, keeping purchase and refi economics tight for operators.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 384
    },
    "summary": "10–2 curve flattening to 41 bps coincides with a 5 bps pop in 30-year mortgages and a 191 bps lender spread.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spread Widens as 30-Year Holds at 6.71% Amid Modest Curve Steepening",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  }
}

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