daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.76 · 2026-09-10
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.83 · 2026-09-09
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.43 · 2026-09-09
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7591.7 · 2026-09-10

Decision: published · computed in 18685 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.86
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.76,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-09",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.83,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-09",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.43,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7591.7,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.71
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-09",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.83,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-08",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.8
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-09",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.43,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-08",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.39
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7591.7,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-09",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7636.36
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 205,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.76%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage rose 5 bps to 6.76%, outpacing Treasury moves and widening the spread to compensate lenders for duration and credit risk."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.83%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury climbed 3 bps to 4.83%, supporting the overall rate backdrop but not fast enough to keep pace with mortgage repricing."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.43%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury advanced 4 bps to 4.43%, keeping the front end slightly steeper than the long end."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate held at 3.63%, unchanged, maintaining the policy anchor while market rates repriced higher."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,591.7"
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination headwinds are tightening: the mortgage-to-Treasury gap widens even as the curve stays shallow, signaling lenders face compressed margins and refinance incentives remain weak despite the modest week-over-week moves.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 361
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year mortgage hit 6.76% on a steeper move than Treasuries, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 193 bps while the yield curve remained nearly flat.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Flattens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 207
}

This exact row, with its canonical preimage, is public at /api/ledger/export. Recompute its hash with the standalone verifier — it shares no code with this site. The chain head is timestamped into Bitcoin.