Mortgage Costs Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Stabilizes
30-year fixed mortgages stayed at 6.47% while the 10/2 spread tightened, keeping refinance incentives muted.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▲ easing
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.47%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.29pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, easing. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #38· track record 9/11 held→6.47%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 6.47%, maintaining the lock-out zone for most existing borrowers.
4.49%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 4.49% continues to anchor long-dated mortgage pricing.
4.2%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury at 4.2% sits just 29 basis points below the 10-year, leaving little curve incentive for borrowers to extend.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.63% (last read May 1) sits 86 basis points below the 30-year mortgage, widening the policy-to-primary spread.
7,420.1
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,420 reflects steady equity demand; no volatility signal for rates.
What it means for your shop
With 30-year mortgages anchored above 6.4% and the curve flat, refi volume remains suppressed and prepayment risk stays low—servicers can forecast stable MSR values, but origination margins will remain under pressure until rates move materially.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.