Mortgage Rate Holds Firm While Curve Flattens
30-year fixed mortgage at 6.47% as 10/2-year spread narrows to just 29 basis points.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.47%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.29pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #87· track record 18/22 held→6.47%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed at 6.47%, unchanged from recent trading—no relief for refi candidates at this level.
4.49%
10-Year Treasury
10-year at 4.49%, still well above the 2-year's 4.2%, but the 29 bp spread leaves limited room for curve steepening to drive longer rates lower.
4.2%
2-Year Treasury
2-year at 4.2%, anchoring short duration as fed funds sits at 3.63%—policy rate expectations priced in.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.63% (as of May 1), a lagged snapshot that predates the June curve behavior; monitor for forward guidance updates.
7,500.58
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,500.58, equity stability intact amid a flattish rate backdrop.
What it means for your shop
With the 10/2 inversion all but erased and mortgage rates sticky above 6.4%, refinance incentive remains muted and origination volume likely stays range-bound; watch whether the curve's persistent flatness signals rate stability or a precursor to eventual compression in longer duration.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.