Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Flattens
30-year mortgages steady at 6.49% while the 10–2 spread compresses to 28 basis points, signaling persistent refinance resistance.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.49%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.28pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #15· track record 6/6 held→6.49%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed holding at 6.49%, unchanged from the prior read and well above the historical refi trigger zone.
4.38%
10-Year Treasury
10-year at 4.38%, anchoring the long end and sustaining the mortgage-rate floor.
4.1%
2-Year Treasury
2-year at 4.1%, just 28 basis points below the 10-year—a flat curve that offers no relief for servicers hedging duration.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.63% as of early May, establishing the policy floor for short-rate expectations and reinforcing persistent term premium.
7,440.43
S&P 500
Equities near 7,440, stable and offering no new macro shock to reprrice the rate complex.
What it means for your shop
The flat curve and elevated long-end yields keep refi incentive muted and MSR duration risk contained; origination volume will remain locked to purchase demand and rate-sensitive borrower migration rather than any meaningful refi wave.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.