Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as Curve Flattens
The 30-year fixed sits 210 basis points above the 10-year Treasury, while short rates lag long-term yields.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.49%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.28pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #15· track record 6/6 held→6.49%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed at 6.49% reflects pricing well above intermediate Treasuries.
4.38%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 4.38% sits below the mortgage rate by over 200 basis points.
4.1%
2-Year Treasury
2-year yield at 4.1% creates a flat curve between short and long maturities.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.63% (last read) suggest policy has paused above neutral.
7,499.36
S&P 500
Equity index near 7,500 reflects market stability amid the rate backdrop.
What it means for your shop
The wide spread and flat curve create conflicting signals for origination incentives: borrowers face elevated mortgage costs even as refinance pressure remains subdued, while servicers benefit from slower prepayment speeds in a higher-rate environment.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.