Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as 10-Year Holds Steady
30-year fixed mortgages sit 205 basis points above the 10-year Treasury, reflecting persistent origination headwinds and compressed servicing margins.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.49%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.30pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #16· track record 6/6 held→6.49%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgages at 6.49%, holding origination volume under pressure.
4.44%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 4.44%, anchoring rate expectations at the longer end.
4.14%
2-Year Treasury
2-year at 4.14%, a 30-basis-point gap to the 10-year reflecting a flattened but upward-sloping curve.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.63% as of June 1, setting the short-rate floor for wholesale funding costs.
7,483.23
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,483, broadly stable equity backdrop for rate expectations.
What it means for your shop
Originators face a widened rate/refi disincentive: at 6.49%, monthly payments on a $400k loan run ~$2,400 against a 4.44% refinance barrier that keeps borrowers locked in. MSR investors should monitor prepay risk if Treasury yields fall sharply, but the current spread suggests refi waves remain unlikely absent a major rate drop.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.