Mortgage Rate Holds Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens
30-year fixed remains pinned at 6.43% while the 10/2 spread compresses to 30 basis points, signaling persistent refinance headwinds.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.43%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.30pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #58· track record 13/15 held→6.43%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed holds at 6.43%, unchanged from prior reads and well above levels that trigger meaningful refinance activity.
4.44%
10-Year Treasury
10-year at 4.44% anchors mortgage pricing higher, leaving limited room for the 30-year spread to compress without yield curve steepening.
4.14%
2-Year Treasury
2-year at 4.14% narrows the curve to just 30 bps, typical of a flatter regime that persists despite no fresh Fed move.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.63% (stale as of June 1) reflects an unchanged policy stance with no near-term catalyst for cuts.
7,483.23
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,483 holds steady, consistent with low volatility and stable yield expectations across the fixed-income complex.
What it means for your shop
Locked-in borrowers face minimal refi incentive with the long end stubbornly elevated relative to short rates, sustaining MSR duration and limiting volume upside despite a modest curve flattening.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.