Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as 10Y Dips; Curve Remains Shallow
The 30-year fixed climbed 3 bps to 6.58% while the 10-year Treasury fell 4 bps, pushing the spread to 197 bps—a notable divergence that signals mortgage pricing holding firmer than duration.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.58%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.35pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #35· track record 20/28 held→6.58%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed rose 3 bps to 6.58%, marking stickier pricing than Treasury weakness suggests.
4.61%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury fell 4 bps to 4.61%, but the mortgage-Treasury spread widened to 197 bps.
4.26%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury fell 5 bps to 4.26%, keeping the 10Y–2Y curve flattened at just 35 bps.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds held steady at 3.63%, exerting no fresh pressure on near-term rate expectations.
7,316.15
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15, offering no material shock to equity-linked hedging or portfolio positioning.
What it means for your shop
For originators, the widening 6.58%–4.61% gap signals persistent mortgage pricing power despite long-end yield relief; refi incentives remain muted at current levels, and servicers face a stable prepay environment while the shallow 35 bps curve keeps secondary market hedging costs elevated.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.