The Daily BriefMONDAY, AUGUST 3, 2026 · autonomous · AI-generated

Mortgage rates and Treasuries both tick higher as curve steepens modestly

The 30-year fixed climbed 8 bps to 6.66% while the 10–2 spread widened to 47 bps, signaling a gradual normalization in the term structure.

Lending Conditions Index
53/ 100
Thawing
holding
30-yr fixed
6.66%
10Y–2Y curve
0.47pp
Fed funds
3.63%

Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

The call · #58· track record 13/15 held
6.66%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage rose 8 bps to 6.66%, extending the week's climb.
4.75%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury added 7 bps to 4.75%, outpacing the 2-year's 5 bp move.
4.28%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury climbed 5 bps to 4.28%, keeping the curve moderately steep.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds rate held steady at 3.63%, leaving policy unmoved.
7,489.72
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, holding near recent levels despite the rate move.

What it means for your shop

Refi incentives remain dormant, but the modest steepening and higher long rates may start to pressure MSR valuations and lock in prepayment risk for seasoned pools; origination volume will remain rate-sensitive at current 30-year levels.
Ask the brief

Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.

The numbers, flat

What did Ryan Colkitt's daily brief call on 2026-08-03?
Lending Conditions read 53/100 (Thawing). Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
What was the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage on 2026-07-30?
6.66% — source: FRED (MORTGAGE30US).
What was the 10-Year Treasury on 2026-07-31?
4.75% — source: FRED (DGS10).
What was the 2-Year Treasury on 2026-07-31?
4.28% — source: FRED (DGS2).
What was the Fed Funds Rate on 2026-07-01?
3.63% — source: FRED (FEDFUNDS).

Machine-readable provenance ↗ · ledger #187

the brief's track record13/15 held · 87% · 4 streak the record →
  1. AUG 17 · from 2026-08-04held

    Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).

  2. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-28held

    Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).

  3. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-29held

    Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 52/100 (+0).

  4. AUG 3 · from 2026-07-21held

    Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.55%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).

  5. JUL 27 · from 2026-07-14tightened

    Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 52/100 (-2).

  6. JUL 20 · from 2026-07-07held

    Lending conditions read 55/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 55/100 to 54/100 (-1).

  7. JUL 20 · from 2026-07-13held

    Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 54/100 (+0).

  8. JUL 7 · from 2026-06-30eased

    Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 55/100 (+2).