Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as Short Rates Push Harder Than Long
The 2-year Treasury spiked 7 bps while the 30-year mortgage gained only 3 bps, stretching the mortgage-to-10y gap to 200 bps and inverting near-term refinance incentives.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.69%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.44pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.69%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.69%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-Year Fixed Mortgage ticked up 3 bps to 6.69%, trailing short-rate pressure.
4.69%
10-Year Treasury
10-Year Treasury rose 6 bps to 4.69%, sitting between the 2-year and 30-year moves.
4.25%
2-Year Treasury
2-Year Treasury jumped 7 bps to 4.25%, the sharpest single-day move of the five readings.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
7,709.96
S&P 500
What it means for your shop
Near-term refi demand will crater as the 2-year climb outpaces mortgage relief; originators facing volume headwinds should brace for margin compression, while servicers see prepay risk fade but MSR volatility rise with curve steepness.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.