Short end leads the curve higher; mortgage spreads hold firm at 200 bps
The 2-year Treasury climbed 7 bps to 4.25% while the 10-year rose 6 bps to 4.69%, steepening the 10–2 spread to 44 bps; 30-year fixed mortgages ticked up 3 bps to 6.69%.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.69%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.44pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.69%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #58· track record 13/15 held→6.69%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed hit 6.69%, up 3 bps in a day.
4.69%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 4.69%, up 6 bps.
4.25%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury at 4.25%, the day's biggest mover at +7 bps.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds unmoved at 3.63%.
7,757.64
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,757.64, up modestly.
What it means for your shop
Mortgage origination remains pressured at 6.69%, but the stable 200 bp spread to the 10-year Treasury signals no fresh MSR or refinance shock—volume headwinds are structural, not market-driven volatility.
Ask the brief
Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.