Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens to 204 bps as Short End Softens
The 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 3 bps to 6.69% while the 10-year treasury fell 4 bps, pushing the conventional-to-Treasury gap to a notable 204 basis points.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.69%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.46pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.69%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.69%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage: 6.69%, up 3 bps in one day.
4.65%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury: 4.65%, down 4 bps.
4.19%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury: 4.19%, down 6 bps.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Rate: 3.63%, unchanged.
7,753.11
S&P 500
S&P 500: 7,753.11 as of August 10.
What it means for your shop
A widening mortgage-Treasury spread—now at 204 bps—signals lenders are pricing elevated servicing and basis risk; combined with a steeper 10Y–2Y curve (46 bps), the environment favors origination volume but threatens MSR valuations if prepay incentives remain muted at these mortgage levels.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.