Mortgage-Treasury spread widens to 204 bps as long rates stabilize
The 30-year fixed mortgage tightened 2 bps to 6.67% while the 10-year Treasury fell 5 bps to 4.63%, pushing the production spread to its widest point in the validated window.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.67%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.48pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.67%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.67%, lagging the longer Treasury's 5 bp drop.
4.63%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury yield dropped 5 bps to 4.63%, leading the selloff in long rates.
4.15%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury matched the 10-year move, falling 5 bps to 4.15%.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds rate held steady at 3.63% as of the last reading (2026-07-01), offering no new signals on near-term cuts.
7,785.76
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,785.76 on 2026-08-14, reflecting broad equity stability amid flat Fed policy.
What it means for your shop
At 204 bps, the mortgage-Treasury gap is wide enough to support origination margins despite tepid refinance incentive—the 30-year is still 4 bps above the prior close and well above refi thresholds for most portfolios. The flattening 10Y–2Y curve (48 bps) flags medium-term prepay risk if the Fed holds; servicers should monitor duration positioning carefully.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.