Mortgage spread widens as Treasury curve steepens; 30-year holds above 6.6%
10Y–2Y spreads to 53 bps while 30-year mortgages tick down 2 bps, keeping the mortgage–10Y gap at 195 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.67%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.53pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve positively sloped.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.67%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage at 6.67%, down 2 bps in a day; originators see little refi tailwind at this level.
4.72%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 4.72%, up 4 bps; longer rates still grinding higher.
4.19%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury at 4.19%, up 2 bps; curve steepens as short end lags.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds unchanged at 3.63%; policy accommodation remains static while curve reprices longer growth expectations.
7,745.06
S&P 500
What it means for your shop
The widening curve and sticky mortgage spreads signal refinance incentive remains muted despite the small rate move down; origination volume likely stays constrained by the elevated 6.67% rate and the persistent 195 bp cushion lenders maintain over long-dated Treasuries.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.