Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields climb; curve stays shallow
The 30-year fixed ticked down 2 bps to 6.65% while the 10-year rose 4 bps to 4.69%, pushing the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.65%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.50pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve positively sloped.
The call · #58· track record 13/15 held→6.65%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.65%, a modest decline that masks deteriorating economics if wholesale funding costs hold.
4.69%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps and squeezing secondary market margins.
4.19%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury held flat at 4.19%, keeping the 10–2 curve at 50 bps and signaling no near-term policy reversal.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, consistent with a stable policy stance through mid-August.
7,674.37
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,674 reflects equity stability, but rates action dominates mortgage economics this week.
What it means for your shop
Wider mortgage spreads despite a small rate drop signal lender margin compression and sticky refinance disincentives—origination incentives remain weak and prepay risk stays muted at elevated coupons.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.