Mortgage spread blows out as 10Y rallies; refi headwind deepens
30-year fixed climbed 5 bps to 6.71% while the 10Y Treasury fell 2 bps, pushing the mortgage–Treasury gap to 194 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.71%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.43pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #80· track record 17/20 held→6.71%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage rose 5 bps to 6.71%, outpacing Treasury moves and widening the mortgage premium.
4.77%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury fell 2 bps to 4.77%, a mild rally that did not translate to lower mortgage rates.
4.34%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury dropped 5 bps to 4.34%, with the curve flattening to a 43 bps spread.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Rate held at 3.63%, unchanged from the prior day.
7,718.6
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,718.6, up from the prior day's level.
What it means for your shop
A widening mortgage spread signals tighter origination margins and reduced refi incentive as lenders price higher credit/servicing costs; operators face weaker volume tailwinds and modestly elevated prepayment risk if spreads compress.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.