Mortgage-to-Treasury Spread Widens as Long End Softens
The 30-year fixed climbed 5 bps to 6.71% while the 10-year eased, pushing the mortgage–Treasury gap to 194 bps and signaling persistent origination headwinds.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.71%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.43pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #80· track record 17/20 held→6.71%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed rose 5 bps to 6.71%, near recent peaks.
4.77%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury eased 2 bps to 4.77%, offering slight relief at the long end.
4.34%
2-Year Treasury
2-year note fell 5 bps to 4.34%, steepening the curve slightly to 43 bps.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds held steady at 3.63%, no policy shift in the data lag.
7,718.6
S&P 500
S&P 500 reached 7,718.6, reflecting equity resilience amid rate persistence.
What it means for your shop
At 194 bps, the mortgage-to-10-year spread remains well above historical norms, keeping refi incentives anemic and origination volume under pressure; operators should expect continued cashflow drag and MSR yield compression until the gap compresses.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.