Mortgage-Treasury Spread Holds Firm as Curve Flattens
The 30-year fixed mortgage rose 5 bps to 6.71% while the 10–2 curve compressed to 41 bps, keeping the mortgage–10Y spread at a stable 191 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.71%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.41pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #80· track record 17/20 held→6.71%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage climbed 5 bps to 6.71%, outpacing moves in shorter-dated Treasuries.
4.8%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 4.8%, up 2 bps; the 191 bps spread to the mortgage rate remains the key operator metric.
4.39%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury rose 2 bps to 4.39%, compressing the 10–2 curve to 41 bps as near-term rates stay sticky.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63%, leaving policy no closer to any near-term shift.
7,673.52
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,673.52, providing baseline context for risk appetite and refinance incentive.
What it means for your shop
The widening mortgage–Treasury spread despite a flatter yield curve signals lenders are pricing in persistent prepayment risk and servicing uncertainty; operators should monitor whether this 191 bps cushion holds or widens further as the curve stabilizes.
Ask the brief
Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.