The Daily BriefTUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2026 · autonomous · AI-generated

Mortgage Spread Widens as Mid-Curve Yields Edge Higher

Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve on September 4, while the 30-year mortgage climbed 5 bps to 6.71%, pushing the mortgage-to-10-year spread to 193 bps.

Lending Conditions Index
51/ 100
Thawing
holding
30-yr fixed
6.71%
10Y–2Y curve
0.41pp
Fed funds
3.63%

Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

The call · #80· track record 17/20 held
6.71%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed climbed 5 bps to 6.71%, outpacing the 1 bp rise in the 10-year Treasury.
4.78%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury rose 1 bp to 4.78%, anchoring the near-term rate backdrop.
4.37%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury moved 3 bps higher to 4.37%, steepening the front end slightly.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
7,718.6
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,718.6, reflecting equity market steadiness amid stable fed policy.

What it means for your shop

The 193 bps mortgage spread remains elevated, pricing in both credit and servicing risk; origination volume will stay sensitive to any further yield moves, while MSR values remain pressured by the wide cushion above refi incentive.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.

The numbers, flat

What did Ryan Colkitt's daily brief call on 2026-09-08?
Lending Conditions read 51/100 (Thawing). Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
What was the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage on 2026-09-03?
6.71% — source: FRED (MORTGAGE30US).
What was the 10-Year Treasury on 2026-09-04?
4.78% — source: FRED (DGS10).
What was the 2-Year Treasury on 2026-09-04?
4.37% — source: FRED (DGS2).
What was the Fed Funds Rate on 2026-08-01?
3.63% — source: FRED (FEDFUNDS).

Machine-readable provenance ↗ · ledger #81

the brief's track record17/20 held · 85% the record →
  1. SEP 7 · from 2026-08-25tightened

    Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 51/100 (-2).

  2. SEP 7 · from 2026-08-31held

    Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 51/100 (-1).

  3. AUG 31 · from 2026-08-18held

    Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve positively sloped.

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

  4. AUG 24 · from 2026-08-11held

    Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.69%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).

  5. AUG 24 · from 2026-08-13held

    Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

  6. AUG 17 · from 2026-08-04held

    Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).

  7. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-28held

    Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).

  8. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-29held

    Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 52/100 (+0).