Mortgage–Treasury Spread Widens as 30-Year Fixed Climbs to 6.76%
A 5 bps jump in 30-year mortgage rates outpaced modest Treasury moves, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 179 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Tight
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.76%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.32pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 49/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.76%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.76%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.76%, up 5 bps in a single day, reflecting a sharper repricing in the primary market than secondary markets experienced.
4.97%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury edged to 4.97%, up only 1 bps, leaving the bulk of the mortgage rise unexplained by benchmark moves alone.
4.65%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury rose 2 bps to 4.65%, keeping the 10–2 curve spread flat at 32 bps and suggesting no immediate Fed pivot priced in.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of early August, now stale by two weeks but consistent with a stable short-end through mid-September.
7,585.73
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,585.73 reflects a steady equity market decoupled from rate pressure, offering no tail-risk hedge signal for rate volatility ahead.
What it means for your shop
Lenders face renewed compression on production margins as the 30-year fixed climbs faster than long-duration Treasuries, signaling either a revaluation of mortgage credit risk or a rebalance of secondary market demand — either way, a tighter bid-ask and lower origination volume ahead unless rate locks accelerate.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.