Mortgage Rates Jump 19 Bps as Long-End Sells Off; 10Y–2Y Curve Flattens to 20 Bps
30-year fixed mortgages rose to 6.95% on a sharp one-day move, while Treasury yields compressed and the 2–10 curve flattened further.
Lending Conditions Index
Tight
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.95%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.20pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 44/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.95%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed jumped 19 bps to 6.95%, further widening the 199 bp spread to 10Y Treasury and keeping refi traffic thin.
4.96%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury fell 5 bps to 4.96%, but the move did not translate into mortgage relief, leaving the curve mortgage-to-10Y spread near two-percent.
4.76%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury held flat at 4.76% as Fed Funds remained anchored at 3.63%, while the 10Y–2Y curve compressed to just 20 bps, a signal of economic caution.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
7,764.7
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,764.7, reflecting broader market digestion of rate volatility and persistent uncertainty on policy path.
What it means for your shop
The one-day 19 bp mortgage surge outpaces the 5 bp 10Y decline, signaling refi incentives remain suppressed and servicers face continued MSR headwinds; the flattened 10–2 curve (now 20 bps) reflects market uncertainty on near-term Fed policy and damps volume across the board.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.