Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year pushes higher; refi window narrows further
The 10-year Treasury climbed 7 bps to 5.18%, pulling the 30-year fixed mortgage to 7.03% and expanding the mortgage–10-year spread to 185 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Tight
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 7.03%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.31pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 44/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 7.03%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→7.03%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage at 7.03%, up 8 bps in one day; the highest level in this series since spring.
5.18%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 5.18%, up 7 bps; the bulk of recent upward pressure in the yield curve.
4.87%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury at 4.87%, up only 2 bps; the curve continues to steepen at the front end.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63%, suggesting no policy move in the interim.
7,743.41
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,743.41; equities stable amid the rise in Treasury yields.
What it means for your shop
With the 30-year mortgage now 185 bps above the 10-year Treasury, refinance incentive continues to erode for borrowers locked in pre-2024 rates; origination appeal tilts further toward purchases in rate-sensitive segments, while MSR duration exposure flattens as prepay risk diminishes.
Ask the brief
Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.