Mortgage rates spike 25 bps as curve flattens and spread blows out
Thirty-year fixed jumped to 7.28% while the 10/2 curve compressed, widening the mortgage–Treasury gap to 204 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Tight
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 7.28%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.46pp
- Fed funds
- 3.75%
Lending conditions read 41/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 7.28%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→7.28%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed at 7.28%, up 25 bps in one day — the largest single-day move in the readings.
5.24%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury at 5.24%, down 5 bps on the day, providing almost no relief to mortgage pricing.
4.78%
2-Year Treasury
2-year at 4.78%, down 10 bps, but the 46 bps curve steepness offers limited refinance tail.
3.75%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.75%, up 12 bps since last month, signaling tighter monetary conditions.
7,666.45
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,666, stable relative to rate moves, showing equity–bond decoupling.
What it means for your shop
Origination economics have tightened sharply: the 25 bps one-day jump in mortgage costs will compress margins on new locks and reduce refi volume immediately. MSR holders face elevated prepay risk if rates stabilize here, but the 204 bps spread offers some cushion against forced hedging losses.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.