Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens to 191 bps as 10Y Yields Rise
Longer-dated treasuries climbed while mortgage rates held steady, pushing the rate-lock incentive wider for borrowers still on the sidelines.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.65%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.50pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve positively sloped.
The call · #60· track record 15/17 held→6.65%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps in a day, holding despite the move in longer rates.
4.74%
10-Year Treasury
10-year treasury climbed 5 bps to 4.74%, pushing the primary driver of mortgage-spread widening.
4.24%
2-Year Treasury
2-year treasury also rose 5 bps to 4.24%, keeping the curve flat at 50 bps.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of 1 July, last reported reading held in place.
7,674.37
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,674, a modest backdrop; equity strength has not yet pulled rates meaningfully higher.
What it means for your shop
The 191 bp spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year treasuries now sits at the upper end of recent trading; for originators, this signals persistent refi-aversion and tighter origination competition, while servicers face manageable but non-trivial prepay risk if treasuries reverse.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.