Mortgage-Treasury Spread Holds Firm as Curve Stabilizes
The 30-year mortgage stayed near 6.65% while intermediate Treasuries dipped, leaving the 10Y–2Y curve at a modest 46 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.65%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.46pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #61· track record 15/17 held→6.65%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year mortgage at 6.65%, down just 2 bps on the day—the recent softness in longer rates is barely moving origination incentives.
4.7%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury fell 4 bps to 4.7%, pulling the long end down while the 2-year held flat.
4.24%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury unchanged at 4.24%, anchoring near-term rate expectations as the front end of the curve resists pressure.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Rate locked at 3.63% (last read 2026-07-01), providing a stable nominal floor while longer rates compress.
7,652.86
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,652.86, reflecting modest equity demand that has not yet shifted duration appetite meaningfully into fixed income.
What it means for your shop
Lenders face a narrower window for volume growth: the 195 bps mortgage-Treasury spread remains elevated despite yesterday's Treasury softening, pinching both origination competitiveness and the incentive for refinance waves. MSR holders should watch for further curve steepening to unlock prepay relief.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.