Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as Long-End Yields Compress
The 10-year Treasury fell 6 bps to 4.64% while the 30-year fixed mortgage ticked down just 2 bps, leaving the spread between them at 201 bps—near the upper end of recent ranges.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.65%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.47pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #107· track record 19/28 held→6.65%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed slipped 2 bps to 6.65%, lagging the Treasury selloff by over 4 bps.
4.64%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury fell 6 bps to 4.64%, dragging the 10y–2y curve to just 47 bps.
4.17%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury dropped 7 bps to 4.17%, signaling softer near-term rate expectations.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds unchanged at 3.63%, keeping policy anchored while long rates drift.
7,677.28
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,677—equity stability amid yield decline offers no new prepay signal.
What it means for your shop
Lenders face persistent rate compression in origination: borrowers see only marginal mortgage relief despite Treasury rally, which narrows refi incentive and pressures purchase volume unless Treasury yields sustain a sharper decline. Wider mortgage spreads also signal elevated prepay risk and hedging costs if rates stabilize here.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.