Mortgage-to-Treasury spread widens to 201 bps as curve flattens and long rates retreat
The 10–2 curve compressed to 47 bps while the 30-year fixed edged down 2 bps, leaving the mortgage-treasury spread at its widest point in the validated dataset.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.65%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.47pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #62· track record 15/17 held→6.65%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed fell 2 bps to 6.65%, the only modest relief in a week of longer-rate pullback.
4.64%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury dropped 6 bps to 4.64%, compressing the spread to the 2-year to just 47 bps.
4.17%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury fell 7 bps to 4.17%, joining the flattening move as near-term rate cuts remain priced in.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds unchanged at 3.63% as of the last reading, holding steady above the terminal 10-year level.
7,677.28
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,677, stable through the rates decline, showing no risk-off signal driving treasury demand.
What it means for your shop
A 201 bp mortgage-treasury spread signals sustained margin pressure on origination; with the 10–2 curve nearly flat, refinance incentives remain muted despite yesterday's decline in long-rate anchors, keeping prepay risk modest but lock-in pull unlikely to accelerate.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.